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Ev Poker
Poker is a game where you can make the correct decision, only to see a card hit the river that causes you to lose a big pot. This chance element makes the game exciting, it can also be frustrating at times. Therefore, expected value in poker is a great concept to learn. Expectation is a key poker concept. Browse through hundreds of poker strategy articles created by winning poker coaches. Our poker strategy explores cutting edge poker concepts to ensure that you're always at the top of your game - Because that's how winners are made. Expected Value (EV) Calculations on 2/10/19. The formula for expected value in poker is: EV = (Size of Pot x Probability of Winning) – Cost of Entering it. Example Calculating EV in Poker: Let’s say we have a pot worth $50 and it’ll cost us $10 to enter it. The chances of winning the pot are 25%. That means using the formula above, the expected value of entering the pot will be 60.0. The +EV Poker Squeeze January 25, 2021 Beginner Poker Strategy, Cash Game Poker, Live Poker, Online Poker, Poker Articles, Tournaments Comments off 7 Views 0 One of the most profitable plays available to you in a game where preflop raises tend to get one or more callers is the squeeze.
Expected Value [EV] Theory
Expected Value (EV) in Poker is a very misunderstood concept. Our intention here is to explain “expected value” as simply as possible and to make you a better poker player by using expected value theory in your decision making process. Without going into a technical definition here is an example of an event that will have a zero expected value over time (EV = 0.00) so as to make this idea clear in your mind. Let’s say I asked you to pick a number between one and twenty and that each time you got it right I would pay you $20. You would expect to be able to correctly guess the number once out of every twenty tries. If I were to charge you $1 for each guess and you guessed at the number millions of times then the expected value under these circumstances would be zero. You would win $20 every twenty tries and since it would cost you $1 each try you would end up winning $20 for each $20 you gambled. If on the other hand I charged you more than a dollar for each guess you would be silly to bet against me (your expected value would be negative) and if I charged you less than a dollar for each guess then you would want to play against me all day long for the rest of your life. To put this idea into gambling terms you know that in Roulette there are 36 numbers and usually a 0 and even a 00 on a table. Clearly your EV would be zero if the casino paid you 37 to one (plus your original bet back) or 38 to one in total but in fact they give you 35 to one on your bet (and your bet back) so your expected value to make money over time is negative. And that is assuming you are betting on only one number for each spin. If you bet on multiple numbers on the same spin of the wheel then your expected value is even worse.
OK now you have a feeling for what we are talking about. How does all this relate to playing Texas Holdem? Glad you asked. In Texas Holdem the expected value of your first two cards depend on the cards you have, your position on the table, and the number of players at the table. In other words you will be happy to know that in the dealer position (on the button) pocket aces yield an EV of 2.96 when there are ten players at the table. This data is based on real data compiled over millions of hands and in real money games. So in the case of our AA in the dealer spot it goes without saying that you will make loads of money with pocket aces. Course we have all lost pocket aces but more often than not we will win the hand and if you have ever played Texas No Limit Holdem then you know that going all in pre-flop with pocket aces is the only time you can be sure to have the one up on all other players in the hand before you have seen a single card. It is expected value theory in Texas Holdem that can help you make a decision to go all in pre-flop (or not). Sometimes you are in a Texas Holdem Tournament and you are running out of chips and it is time to make a bold play (like the all in play). Wouldn’t you rather make a decision that at least you know that in the long run you have a positive expected value with a given hand and not a negative expected value? Sometimes it is just this little difference and this little bit of information that can help you stay in the Tournament until you are in the money as opposed to busting out early. We have taken the liberty to give you all the expected value data for 10 players all the way down to 2 players so that you can make an educated decision in the game at the crucial time instead of gambling blind on any two cards that are yours to play. Ultimately the all in play is the one situation the more talented Texas Hold’em players prefer to avoid in a pre-flop situation (unless they have pocket aces) and by using the all in strategy you will be able to improve your standing in a Texas Holdem Tournament without seeing a flop (hopefully). This is assumed that nobody calls your all in and that you pick up the blinds without a challenge.
As a rule the better the expected value of your first two cards in Texas Holdem the better the chances of you eventually winning the hand. In other words if you have an EV of 1.00 your bet in this situation will get you much more money more often than not as represented by such a strong expected value. You must note that even hands with an EV greater than 1.0 will lose sometimes. But in the long run you will make money with them. Actually the hands with an EV = 0.00 will break even over time so we suggest that you play the two first cards with a positive expected value as often as you can (depending on the situation). If you are in the dealer position with JJ and three people have gone all in for more chips than you have in total and it is your turn to play then you should fold immediately since there is a good probability that someone has a better hand and even though the EV of JJ in the dealer position is 0.89 you have to know that you are up against some very powerful hands.
In the above example we gave you the expected value of JJ in the dealer position in a ten player game. Below you will note the expected value of hands in a ten player game in the dealer position:
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If you habitually play hands with large negative expected values you should not be surprised that you are losing more than you win. For example here are some seemingly good and bad starting hands in Texas Holdem and their associated negative expected values (in a ten handed game in the dealer position).
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To show you the difference position makes in expected value please note below the same hands in the big blind position for a ten handed game:
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In other words in the big blind an 8 7 off suit is much worse (you will lose much more money over time playing this hand) than in the dealers position.
Please send all your comments and questions about expected value to info@texasholdemgame.com. Enjoy Online Texas Holdem and play smart!
How the Concepts of Expectation and Expected Value Can Help You Ride Out the Poker Swings
Poker is a game where you can make the correct decision, only to see a card hit the river that causes you to lose a big pot. This chance element makes the game exciting, it can also be frustrating at times. Therefore, expected value in poker is a great concept to learn.
Expectation is a key poker concept.It describes how your outcomes pan out when you repeat a play thousands of times. This is long enough for variance in results to even out – as long as you make plays which are profitable over the long-term, the money will eventually come your way. Another way of describing expectation is the term ‘expected value’. This allows you to put numbers on a play. Your moves will have positive or negative expected value. As long as you focus on your game, ensuring that you stick to ‘plus ev’ plays, the money will inevitably come your way.
This page explains the concepts of expectation and expected value in poker, and then goes on to show how it applies to many poker situations. Here is what you will find below:
- Expectation Explained: Simple coin-flip games show expectation in action
- Applying Expectation to Poker: Here I use simple all-in or fold situations to show how this works in poker.
- Expectation with More Cards to Come: How to combine pot odds and outs to figure out if a play has a positive expectation
- Pre-Flop Ranges: This section explains why you should stay tight from early position, and raise more on the button using expected value as a guide
- The Long Run: How to use expectation to figure out your profitability and hourly rates
- Expectation with Winning Players and Fish: Here you’ll find why seeking out the softest games will dramatically increase your profits.
Simple Coin-Flip Games Show How Expectation Works
Flipping a coin could not be further from poker – though it does illustrate the concept of expectation simply. This can show the difference between your long-term results and short-term variance. I’ll assume this coin is fair (landing on heads and tails exactly 50% of the time in the long run).
If you were to get together with a friend, who offered you $10 a flip with this coin there are two outcomes. 50% of the time you would lose your $10, 50% of the time you would win $10. Simple so far. While on a single flip you would either win or lose, over 1000’s of flips, your results would be very close to break even. This illustrates that while your expectation (long term profit or loss) is zero, in the short term (say, 3 flips) your outcomes vary a lot. You might win $30, loose $30 or fall somewhere in between.
Now that same friend offers you $10 if you win, and you’ll only pay her $5 if you lose. This is a great deal. You can calculate your expectation as follows:
- 50% of the time you win $10
- 50% of the time you lose $5
Over 1000 flips, you win 500 times (+$500) and lose 500 times (-$250). Your net gain is $250, which is $2.50 a hand. If were offered this deal, each time that coin flipped your expectation would be $2.50 in profit – regardless of the result of any individual spin.
Ev Poker Starting Hands
Simple Expected Value In Poker Calculations
There are coin-flip type situations at the poker table. For example, Ace-King is as good as a flip against pocket queens all-in pre-flop. The concept of expected value in poker comes to life in the common example of an over-pair against a flush draw.
You hold a pair of aces, and your opponent has a flush draw in this hand. When the chips go in on the flop, you have a 65% (approx.) chance of winning, and your opponent will suck-out 35% of the time. We also need to take into account money already in the pot to work out the expected value of each player. Here we will assume $100 in the pot, you bet $200 more, and get called.
Here are how the numbers look:
Poker Ev Chart
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- 65% of the time, you win the $500 chip pot
- 35% of the time, your opponent wins
If you ran this same situation 100 times, you would win an average of $325 and your opponent an average of $175. You are making a positive expectation bet, every time you put $200 into the pot, you win $125 more. Your opponent is losing $25 every time they make the same play. Note that the dead money already in the pot makes a big difference here.
In the moment, you might feel like you have taken a major ‘bad beat’. Note that the negative expectation for your opponent is -8% (using approximate numbers). While this is a mistake on their part (and those 8% edges are important), it is not as terrible as you might think.
These are simple examples to illustrate the concept of expected value in poker. As you take into account multiple players, money left behind to bet (for example if the turn does not come up in the same suit as the drawing player), and the chance of the aces making a full house by the river even when the flush does appear – you’ll see the real-life calculations get complex.
Practical Applications of Expected Value in Poker: Starting Hands
Over a large sample of hands, making more +ev decisions than your opponents are exactly where the profit comes from in poker.
When you consider what starting hands to play, long-term expectation comes into play. You might already know that good players open with fewer hands from early position, compared to when last to act. The reason is that small pairs and lower Ace-x hands have a negative expected value in poker from early position. There are simply too many opponents with unknown hands to make them profitable.
Of course, expectation is only a guideline. If you are playing in a game where opponents play ‘face up’ (are easy to read) then you might have a greater expectation with a wider range than in a game with experienced players.
Long Term Profits and Expectation
You can use expectation to decide how to play individual hands profitably. This same concept can also be used to assess your long-term profitability.
If you know that you have an edge against players in your game, you can work out an hourly profit rate, based on how much you make in each hand over the long-run. We know that poker has a huge chance element. Even the worst players will sometimes win big pots, hitting a lucky card when they had a very slim chance of winning. Over time, superior (+ev) decision making will prevail.
If you make an average of 4x the big blind per table per hour – and play five tables, you know that you’ll make $20 an hour over the long run in a 50c / $1 game. If you suffer a bad beat and lose $200 this time, you might end the session down. This will balance out over time – the more +ev plays you are making, and the larger the number of hands in the sample, the closer to your ‘true’ expected value in poker you will be.
Bankroll Management and Expectation
Those chance elements in poker are the reason that good players manage their bankrolls conservatively. In order to remove the effects of variance from the game, you need to play a lot of hands. Having a big enough bankroll to ride out those swings is a prerequisite to being profitable in the long run.
Put another way, you will not have a chance to realise your real (positive) expected value in poker unless you have a big enough bankroll to ride out the short-term swings.
Cash game players ensure they have 20 buy-ins to make sure that suck-outs or ‘coolers’ do not dent their longer-term profitability. For tournaments the swings are much bigger, and 100x your average buy-in is recommended. Sit n go tournaments are in-between, with 50 buy-ins recommended.
Expectation Against Fish and Winning Players
Ev Poker Calculator
The factor which has the single biggest effect on your expectation is how many mistakes your opponents are making. If you play against opponents who are constantly making negative expectation decisions, your profits will improve.
This is a dynamic factor. You might crush a $100 buy-in game – and be crushed yourself at a $500 buy-in table. It highlights the need to quantify your expectation against bad players, and to avoid ‘regulars’ (especially at online sites known for being easy) who may be taking money from the games.
Ev Poker
Table selection is the key factor here. You should make sure you choose the games where your expectation is highest. If you see four regulars at a certain table, against whom you have only a tiny edge, then they will be taking money from the remaining bad players. By factoring in their edge against the players you are targeting, you will see that there is less profit to be made for you.
Poker Expected Value
Even though you expect to have a positive expectation against the regulars – you should skip this table and find a better one. After all, if you have the fish to yourself, you don’t need to share the spoils of their negative ev plays with anyone else!